Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:32:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe245…eb3e crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$35 (-0%) realized −$136 · open +$101
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate95%19W / 1L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$440per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$564now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$75
14 days−$73
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% +$5
other 31% +$27
sports 23% +$11
politics 12% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.4% -9.1% 75% 25% -13.1%
≤30d 8 +0.3% -9.3% 88% 12% -11.4%
≤90d 18 +0.3% -9.3% 94% 6% -10.2%
all 20 +0.3% -9.3% 95% 5% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 5% -10.1%
10% -17.9% 5% -18.7%
15% -25.9% 5% -26.6%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$534) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$212 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$564
Realized−$136
Unrealized+$101
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses19 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage99d
Avg bet$440
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 82¢ 100¢ $462 $564 +$101 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $465 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $333 +$132 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $544 −$212 -39%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $540 +$5 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 9? Jun 10 $530 +$2 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $202 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 02 $333 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 22? May 25 $535 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Democrats win control of the most London borough coun May 10 $245 +$1 +0%
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elec May 09 $290 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? May 01 $235 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in April? May 01 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 24? Apr 25 $535 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 17? Apr 18 $534 $0 +0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $534 +$1 +0%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 09 $529 +$5 +1%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 03 $528 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 01 $527 +$1 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Mar 20 $523 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 14? Mar 14 $522 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $563.73 · official $563.73 (match) · 41 history records