Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:19:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe249…3489 crypto 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$221 (-40%) realized −$221 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%12W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days−$8
14 days−$40
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$74
sports 23% −$57
weather 18% −$51
politics 2% −$5
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-53.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +30.7% +18.3% 38% 38% -12.4%
≤30d 27 +1.7% -8.0% 30% 30% -22.8%
≤90d 84 -48.2% -53.1% 14% 14% -42.8%
all 84 -48.2% -53.1% 14% 14% -42.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.1% 14% -42.8%
10% -57.6% 14% -48.3%
15% -61.7% 14% -53.3%
20% -65.4% 14% -57.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -68% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$6 · ×3.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$221
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses12 / 72
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage58d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$26 +489%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$23 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$12 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$18 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$15 +363%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$9 +170%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $15 +$30 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $72 −$50 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 06 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 06 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 06 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 25 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 25 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 25 $12 +$19 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Apr 25 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Apr 25 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 25 $8 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 25 $3 +$17 +570%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 24? Apr 24 $9 −$9 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on April 23? Apr 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Gwangju: James McCabe vs Leandro Riedi Apr 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Texas Rangers Apr 24 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 21? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Alzon (BO3) - BetBoom RUSH B! Summit Playoff Apr 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $4 7h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 11h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 33¢ $15 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 38¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.96 · official $4.96 (match) · 127 history records