Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:03:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E2 0xe24e…eece sports 770 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,213 (+2%) realized +$1,212 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate57%434W / 334L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Fees−$536est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$273
7 days−$1,316
14 days−$1,893
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$890
other 2% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 -13.9% -22.1% 50% 40% -21.4%
≤30d 531 +4.9% -5.1% 58% 49% -9.5%
≤90d 768 +4.3% -5.7% 57% 49% -8.0%
all 768 +4.3% -5.7% 57% 49% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 49% -8.0%
10% -14.7% 39% -16.8%
15% -22.9% 31% -24.8%
20% -30.5% 25% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$45 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$201
Realized+$1,212
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses434 / 334
Est. fees paid−$536
Open positions2
Markets (closed)768 / 770
History coverage42d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 768 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Team Falcons 66¢ 68¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) Cerundolo 62¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 259 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Sapporo: Ayumi Miyamoto vs Sae Noguchi Jun 20 $10 +$3 +34%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $101 +$87 +86%
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 19 $15 −$1 -5%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) Jun 19 $73 −$72 -98%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ana Giraldi Requena vs Marianne Argyrokastriti Jun 19 $101 +$21 +21%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
ITF Irvine: Kenta Miyoshi vs Benjamin O'connell Jun 19 $100 +$11 +11%
ITF Taipei: Yuno Kitahara vs Thasaporn Naklo Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
ITF Irvine: Patsy Daughters vs Alina Shcherbinina Jun 18 $100 +$15 +14%
ITF Tulsa: Ilyas Milad Fahim vs Jeffrey John Wolf Jun 18 $100 +$12 +12%
ITF Bolszewo: Maja Pawelska vs Weronika Ewald Jun 18 $100 +$10 +10%
ITF Dinard: Lena Thomas Iglesias vs Margaux Maquet Jun 18 $100 +$11 +11%
ITF Luque: Romina Ccuno vs Emily Zornada Jun 18 $54 −$53 -98%
ITF San Gregorio: Agnese Gentili vs Natalija Senic Jun 18 $49 +$3 +6%
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Sandro Kopp Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
ITF Milano: Stefano D'agostino vs Georgii Kravchenko Jun 18 $100 +$12 +12%
Linda Noskova vs. Diane Parry: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$55 +55%
Noskova vs. Parry: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 18 $101 +$87 +86%
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti Jun 18 $82 −$81 -98%
ITF Klosters: Nicole Gadient vs Mara Guth Jun 18 $100 +$6 +6%
ITF Klosters: Tina Manescu vs Adrienn Nagy Jun 18 $100 +$10 +10%
ITF Zhengzhou: Chenting Zhu vs Jia-Jing Lu Jun 18 $4 +$2 +48%
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) Jun 18 $100 +$105 +105%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto Jun 17 $73 −$72 -98%
ITF Tulsa: Jonah Braswell vs Nicolas Arseneault Jun 17 $87 −$86 -98%
ITF Tulsa: Dhakshineswar Suresh vs Gavin Young Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata Jun 17 $115 $0 +0%
ITF Blois: Diana Martynov vs Ipek Oz Jun 17 $101 +$38 +38%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon Jun 17 $100 +$8 +8%
ITF San Gregorio: Michelle Kelly Tikhonko vs Amy Stevens Jun 17 $100 +$8 +8%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $101 +$34 +34%
ITF Klosters: Tanguy Genier vs Nicolas Kobelt Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Jun 17 $101 −$3 -3%
ITF San Gregorio: Galatea Ferro vs Sofia Rocchetti Jun 17 $100 +$8 +8%
ITF Haskovo: Bianca Barbulescu vs Denislava Glushkova Jun 17 $101 +$24 +24%
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder Jun 17 $100 +$13 +13%
ITF Samobor: Jakub Vrba vs Noa Vukadin Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Milica Stosovic vs Marianne Argyrokastriti Jun 17 $12 +$1 +12%
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi Jun 17 $100 +$12 +12%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Jiangxue Han Jun 17 $100 +$11 +11%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li Jun 17 $70 +$4 +6%
ITF Zhengzhou: Qiu Yu Ye vs Le Yi Liu Jun 17 $181 −$63 -35%
ITF Sapporo: Yuka Matsumoto vs Mayuka Aikawa Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
ITF Tulsa: Axel Nefve vs Jeffrey John Wolf Jun 16 $51 +$29 +57%
ITF Tauste: Andrea Palazon Lacasa vs Yasmine Mansouri Jun 16 $100 +$8 +8%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 16 $101 +$34 +34%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $101 +$63 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) BUY Cerundolo 62¢ $101 46m
ITF Sapporo: Ayumi Miyamoto vs Sae Noguchi BUY Ayumi Miyamoto 74¢ $10 2h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $101 6h
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) BUY Sabalenka 71¢ $101 19h
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) BUY Collignon 41¢ $73 20h
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck BUY Naoya Honda 49¢ $102 26h
ITF Taipei: Yuno Kitahara vs Thasaporn Naklo BUY Thasaporn Naklo 63¢ $101 30h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ana Giraldi Requena vs Marianne Argyrokastriti BUY Marianne Argyrokastriti 82¢ $101 30h
ITF Irvine: Kenta Miyoshi vs Benjamin O'connell BUY Kenta Miyoshi 90¢ $100 32h
ITF Irvine: Patsy Daughters vs Alina Shcherbinina BUY Alina Shcherbinina 87¢ $100 35h
ITF Tulsa: Ilyas Milad Fahim vs Jeffrey John Wolf BUY Jeffrey John Wolf 89¢ $100 41h
ITF Bolszewo: Maja Pawelska vs Weronika Ewald BUY Weronika Ewald 91¢ $100 43h
ITF Dinard: Lena Thomas Iglesias vs Margaux Maquet BUY Margaux Maquet 90¢ $100 43h
ITF Luque: Romina Ccuno vs Emily Zornada BUY Emily Zornada 32¢ $54 43h
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Sandro Kopp BUY Alexandre Aubriot 81¢ $101 44h
ITF San Gregorio: Agnese Gentili vs Natalija Senic BUY Natalija Senic 94¢ $49 46h
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti BUY Cash/Tracy 42¢ $82 46h
ITF Milano: Stefano D'agostino vs Georgii Kravchenko BUY Georgii Kravchenko 89¢ $100 47h
ITF Klosters: Nicole Gadient vs Mara Guth BUY Mara Guth 94¢ $100 2d
ITF Klosters: Tina Manescu vs Adrienn Nagy BUY Adrienn Nagy 91¢ $100 2d
ITF Zhengzhou: Chenting Zhu vs Jia-Jing Lu BUY Chenting Zhu 67¢ $4 2d
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto BUY Santiago De La Fuente 41¢ $73 2d
ITF Tulsa: Jonah Braswell vs Nicolas Arseneault BUY Jonah Braswell 45¢ $87 2d
ITF Tulsa: Dhakshineswar Suresh vs Gavin Young BUY Dhakshineswar Suresh 58¢ $101 2d
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) BUY PlayTime 48¢ $100 2d
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata BUY Patrick Schoen 87¢ $100 2d
Linda Noskova vs. Diane Parry: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 64¢ $101 2d
Noskova vs. Parry: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 53¢ $101 2d
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata BUY Vasco Leote Prata 12¢ $14 2d
ITF Blois: Diana Martynov vs Ipek Oz BUY Ipek Oz 72¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.47 · official $201.47 (match) · 1315 history records