Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:09:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe24e…9410 crypto 939 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$396 (+1%) realized +$432 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate88%828W / 110L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$35
14 days−$58
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$448
sports 1% −$47
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +8.2% -2.1% 100% 33% -1.4%
≤30d 11 +2.2% -7.5% 64% 36% -10.3%
≤90d 56 -3.3% -12.5% 79% 43% -9.9%
all 938 -4.1% -13.2% 88% 14% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 14% -8.7%
10% -21.5% 7% -17.4%
15% -29.1% 4% -25.4%
20% -36.1% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$15 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized+$432
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses828 / 110
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)938 / 939
History coverage134d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 938 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $200 $164 −$36 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $80 +$6 +8%
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $100 +$6 +6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $205 +$22 +11%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $26 −$3 -12%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $191 −$90 -47%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $100 +$6 +6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $46 +$23 +51%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $48 +$21 +44%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $26 −$2 -8%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $51 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 30 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 27 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 27 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 05 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 05 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 05 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 05 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 05 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 05 $25 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 05 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 15 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 15 $73 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 15 $62 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 15 $1 $0 +19%
Solana Up or Down - April 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 09 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 09 $1 $0 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 09 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 09 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 09 $41 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 09 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 04 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 04 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 04 $5 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 04 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 04 $5 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 04 $5 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 04 $5 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 04 $5 +$1 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 94¢ $30 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 92¢ $50 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 94¢ $100 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $227 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $23 10d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 68¢ $91 13d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 35¢ $42 13d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $101 13d
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Under 94¢ $100 15d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $69 15d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $69 15d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 68¢ $48 15d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $46 15d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $24 24d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $48 24d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 24d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 24d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 24d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 24d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $25 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.46 · official $164.46 (match) · 2852 history records