Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:54:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E2 0xe24e…350c crypto 114 markets active 0h ago coverage 384d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,807 (-19%) realized −$2,709 · open −$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate22%23W / 81L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,097now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$583
7 days−$583
14 days−$583
30 days−$583
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 37% −$1,712
politics 27% +$209
sports 16% −$125
other 12% −$481
tech 6% −$355
culture 1% −$9
economics 1% −$40
world 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-40.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -41.0% -46.6% 42% 33% -37.8%
≤30d 12 -41.0% -46.6% 42% 33% -37.8%
≤90d 12 -41.0% -46.6% 42% 33% -37.8%
all 104 -34.2% -40.5% 22% 19% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.5% 19% -25.9%
10% -46.2% 18% -33.0%
15% -51.4% 16% -39.4%
20% -56.1% 13% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -38% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$57 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

384d coverage
Net worth$1,097
Realized−$2,709
Unrealized−$98
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses23 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions9
Markets (closed)104 / 114
History coverage384d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $500 $430 −$70 (-14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Up 77¢ 72¢ $215 $203 −$13 (-6%)
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 57¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 0.5 Over 66¢ 64¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 Over 30¢ 28¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $206 +$136 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $233 +$144 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 25 $206 +$135 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 25 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 25 $107 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $206 −$206 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jan 29 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jan 29 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jan 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jan 29 $150 −$118 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jan 29 $60 +$187 +313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jan 29 $83 −$83 -100%
Patriots vs. Dolphins Jan 29 $200 −$102 -51%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett to replace Lisa Cook? Jan 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 2PM ET Jan 29 $1,373 −$569 -41%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 29 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jan 29 $273 −$273 -100%
US strikes Yemen by December 31? Jan 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jan 28 $141 +$148 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jan 28 $157 +$62 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 3PM ET Jan 28 $633 −$50 -8%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 02 $8 −$4 -44%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Dec 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 22 $10 −$3 -26%
Eagles vs. Chiefs Sep 15 $80 +$47 +59%
Broncos vs. Colts Sep 15 $80 +$98 +122%
Dodgers vs. Giants Sep 14 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-14? Sep 14 $100 +$82 +82%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-13? Sep 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-13? Sep 13 $171 +$66 +39%
Will FrP win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electi Sep 08 $1,091 +$509 +47%
Will Erna Solberg become the next Prime Minister of Norway? Sep 08 $514 −$236 -46%
Will MDG win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? Sep 05 $100 −$5 -5%
Will SV win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? Sep 04 $100 −$23 -23%
Will R win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? Sep 04 $100 −$6 -6%
Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? Sep 03 $150 +$40 +26%
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electio Sep 02 $1,355 +$123 +9%
Will Valencia win on 2025-08-16? Aug 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway? Aug 13 $361 −$10 -3%
Will Elon tweet 315–329 times August 1–August 8? Aug 11 $20 −$20 -100%
League of Legends: Anyone's Legend vs. FunPlus Phoenix Aug 11 $40 −$40 -100%
BLAST Bounty: OG vs. MOUZ Aug 11 $52 −$52 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $14 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 2h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 2h
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $101 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 5h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $101 15h
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $102 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 38¢ $102 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,096.97 · official $1,191.38 · 376 history records