Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:23:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E2 0xe24f…34da sports 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,197 (+16%) realized +$2,323 · open −$126
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate47%28W / 31L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$215est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$332
7 days+$1,299
14 days+$2,080
30 days+$2,208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$1,520
other 9% +$1,000
crypto 8% −$240
tech 4% −$214
politics 1% +$17
economics 1% −$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +15.8% +4.8% 48% 44% +12.4%
≤30d 58 +1.3% -8.3% 48% 38% +8.1%
≤90d 58 +1.3% -8.3% 48% 38% +8.1%
all 59 -0.4% -9.9% 47% 37% +7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 37% +7.0%
10% -18.5% 29% -3.3%
15% -26.4% 24% -12.6%
20% -33.6% 20% -21.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$56 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$2,323
Unrealized−$126
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses28 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$215
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage278d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? Yes 44¢ 18¢ $208 $83 −$126 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $355 +$85 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $52 +$5 +9%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 +$405 +403%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $153 −$52 -34%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$6 -53%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 17 $158 −$53 -34%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $170 +$62 +37%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 16 $105 −$91 -87%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $203 −$198 -98%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -93%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $304 +$175 +58%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $141 +$254 +180%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $198 +$340 +172%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $128 −$126 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $866 −$84 -10%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2,112 −$235 -11%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $307 −$58 -19%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $510 +$152 +30%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $510 +$256 +50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $306 +$400 +131%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 −$8 -37%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $405 +$129 +32%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $307 −$64 -21%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $510 +$479 +94%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $719 +$122 +17%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $251 +$271 +108%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $723 +$100 +14%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $4 +$3 +79%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $295 +$323 +109%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? Jun 10 $36 −$33 -91%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? Jun 10 $42 +$6 +14%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $471 +$71 +15%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $102 −$67 -65%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $501 +$33 +7%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 19, 2026? Jun 08 $185 −$30 -16%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $28 −$28 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 8? Jun 08 $55 −$31 -57%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $64 −$5 -8%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 12? Jun 08 $82 −$64 -78%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $62 −$15 -23%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? Jun 08 $81 −$45 -56%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 06 $119 +$17 +14%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $500 −$269 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 48¢ $198 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 32¢ $54 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 38¢ $98 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 62¢ $242 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 51¢ $203 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $57 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 14h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 15h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 93¢ $505 41h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $100 41h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 20¢ $101 41h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $153 42h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 44h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL Yes 17¢ $105 44h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 82¢ $232 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $14 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $203 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $170 2d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $480 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 51¢ $304 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $141 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $538 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $198 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 35¢ $128 4d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY Yes 23¢ $158 4d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $58 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 67¢ $593 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.62 · official $82.62 (match) · 139 history records