Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:53:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E2 0xe250…ea7a sports 158 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$104 (-2%) realized −$98 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%48W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$444now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$80
14 days−$28
30 days−$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$45
other 46% −$220
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -5.7% -14.7% 26% 26% -12.5%
≤30d 148 -3.6% -12.8% 32% 32% -12.5%
≤90d 148 -3.6% -12.8% 32% 32% -12.5%
all 148 -3.6% -12.8% 32% 32% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 32% -12.5%
10% -21.1% 32% -20.9%
15% -28.7% 30% -28.5%
20% -35.7% 27% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$24 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$444
Realized−$98
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses48 / 100
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions6
Markets (closed)148 / 158
History coverage30d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 34¢ 34¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Croatia to win the second half? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Croatia 42¢ 40¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Croatia leading at halftime? Yes 49¢ 49¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score No 50¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 23 $10 +$21 +206%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $51 +$58 +114%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 22 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$50 +982%
Norway to win the second half? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 20 $984 +$848 +86%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $20 +$20 +98%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $964 −$950 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 $0 -3%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $5 $0 -9%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 $0 -3%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$21 +206%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 +$20 +197%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$23 +76%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$47 +1519%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $302 −$137 -45%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $101 +$27 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $101 +$23 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Croatia to win the second half? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 1h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $51 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 42¢ $102 1h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Over 8¢ $5 15h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $10 15h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 21h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 41h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 41h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 41h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 52¢ $10 2d
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 2d
Norway to win the second half? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 2d
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 2d
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 31¢ $10 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 6¢ $5 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 2¢ $2 2d
Germany to win the second half? BUY Yes 59¢ $71 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $40 2d
Germany to win the second half? BUY Yes 52¢ $913 2d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $964 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $9 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 47¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $444.26 · official $459.29 · 286 history records