Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:37:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe251…a237 crypto 203 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3163 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$5,461 (+19%) realized +$5,431 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate35%108W / 199L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day3163.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,668now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$196
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3163 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 307 -34.9% -41.1% 35% 24% -19.0%
≤30d 307 -34.9% -41.1% 35% 24% -19.0%
≤90d 307 -34.9% -41.1% 35% 24% -19.0%
all 307 -34.9% -41.1% 35% 24% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3163.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.1% 24% -19.0%
10% ← realistic here -46.8% 19% -26.8%
15% -51.9% 10% -33.9%
20% -56.6% 7% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late -68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
16.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$37 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,668
Realized+$5,431
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses108 / 199
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)307 / 203
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$143
Trades / day3163.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 307 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Up 41¢ 20¢ $521 $258 −$263 (-50%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Down 51¢ 80¢ $50 $78 +$28 (+55%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Down 44¢ 46¢ $49 $51 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 126 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $582 −$582 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $145 −$145 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $8 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $40 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $38 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $38 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $38 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $32 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $42 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $36 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $42 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $42 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $42 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $11 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $40 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 7m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,667.83 · official $1,719.52 · 3500 history records