Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:34:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe252…af16 world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 307d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$14 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate31%10W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% +$19
other 15% −$5
politics 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 17% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 14 +1.1% -8.5% 36% 7% -8.7%
≤90d 14 +1.1% -8.5% 36% 7% -8.7%
all 32 +0.3% -9.2% 31% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 3% -9.6%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

307d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses10 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage307d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 48¢ 66¢ $39 $53 +$14 (+36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $38 +$1 +2%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $53 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $42 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $38 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $4 $0 +11%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $42 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $19 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $91 +$4 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $18 $0 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 11 $39 −$5 -14%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Nov 19 $5 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 19 $5 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 18 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? Oct 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Oct 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $5 $0 +6%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 48¢ $12 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 48¢ $27 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $39 11h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $39 16h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $31 30h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $8 30h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $38 34h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $42 43h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $42 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $15 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $7 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $8 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $14 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $27 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $42 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 9d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 9d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 9d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $42 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $42 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $20 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $19 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $8 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.05 · official $53.05 (match) · 96 history records