Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:42:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe252…9a07 politics 146 markets active 0h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$371 (-0%) realized −$371 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate26%37W / 107L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$974per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$875now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$16
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$92
other 31% −$117
sports 11% −$156
world 5% −$2
economics 2% +$1
culture 2% −$3
crypto 1% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 26 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 89 -13.8% -22.0% 4% 0% -11.3%
all 144 +1.2% -8.5% 26% 9% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 9% -9.8%
10% -17.2% 9% -18.4%
15% -25.2% 8% -26.3%
20% -32.6% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,386) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$20 · ×2.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$875
Realized−$371
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses37 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)144 / 146
History coverage147d
Avg bet$974
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $654 $654 −$0 (-0%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $222 $221 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $1,497 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $234 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,709 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $384 +$2 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $869 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,211 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $872 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $895 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $931 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $889 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $3,140 −$4 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $876 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $907 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $809 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,882 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $508 +$2 +0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 27 $418 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $246 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $843 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $478 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $1,309 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,477 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $2,702 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $2,752 −$3 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 08 $1,469 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $2,717 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $2,746 −$4 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,437 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,490 −$2 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,386 −$2 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,353 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $1,353 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 05 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $2,661 −$3 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $1,324 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $1,316 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $626 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 30 $710 +$1 +0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $4,043 −$4 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $2,525 −$3 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,421 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 20 $1,422 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $2,370 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $222 11m
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $283 1h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $283 4h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $233 47h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $234 2d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $473 2d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $474 2d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $654 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $868 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $869 6d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $937 7d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $938 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $818 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $820 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $870 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $872 8d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $894 8d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $895 9d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $930 9d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $931 9d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $888 13d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $889 13d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $783 13d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $784 14d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $875 14d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $876 14d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $905 17d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $907 17d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $808 17d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $809 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $875.05 · official $875.05 (match) · 420 history records