Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:15:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe256…1dd8 sports 998 markets active 15h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$778 (-5%) realized −$778 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%350W / 646L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Fees−$169est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days−$78
14 days−$66
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$215
other 18% −$352
crypto 11% −$320
world 1% −$14
weather 0% −$16
finance 0% −$2
economics 0% −$1
politics 0% −$4
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -17.2% -25.0% 32% 22% -16.1%
≤30d 86 -14.5% -22.7% 36% 30% -13.1%
≤90d 709 -13.7% -21.9% 36% 29% -20.5%
all 996 -15.2% -23.3% 35% 29% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 29% -14.8%
10% -30.6% 24% -23.0%
15% -37.3% 19% -30.4%
20% -43.5% 14% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$778
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses350 / 646
Est. fees paid−$169
Open positions0
Markets (closed)996 / 998
History coverage130d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 996 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +26%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 $0 -10%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$3 -40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 −$48 -78%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $19 $0 +2%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$7 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $46 +$15 +32%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $18 −$1 -8%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 -4%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $3 $0 -9%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$1 -29%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $7 −$1 -15%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +89%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -12%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $44 −$25 -57%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $54 +$4 +8%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -29%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -76%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $49 +$9 +19%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $45 +$8 +18%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $22 −$12 -53%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $47 +$3 +7%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $30 +$3 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -25%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -23%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -22%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -20%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $4 +$4 +97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $5 +$3 +61%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$4 +77%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $10 +$6 +58%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +69%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $3 +$5 +153%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia a BUY 10¢ $5 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 23h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 23h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $4 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $19 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 74¢ $19 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $19 27h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $61 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $12 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 82¢ $12 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 61¢ $10 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $13 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 2d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 2d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 47¢ $3 2d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 50¢ $3 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2708 history records