Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:54:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E2 0xe258…ce89 world 4 markets active 13h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+4%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$1
other 43% +$22
crypto 9% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +5.6% -4.5% 100% 50% -3.4%
≤30d 4 +4.6% -5.4% 75% 25% -5.9%
≤90d 4 +4.6% -5.4% 75% 25% -5.9%
all 4 +4.6% -5.4% 75% 25% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 25% -5.9%
10% -14.5% 0% -14.9%
15% -22.7% 0% -23.1%
20% -30.3% 0% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×15.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×45.35 per $1 lost it wins $45.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage10d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Jun 22 $40 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? Jun 22 $63 +$7 +11%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $303 +$22 +7%
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30? Jun 12 $303 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $40 13h
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 13h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 13h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 13h
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $35 13h
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $34 13h
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $32 14h
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $32 14h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 93¢ $303 10d
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $208 10d
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $94 10d
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $303 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records