Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:02:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe259…57a9 crypto 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11 (-14%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate78%50W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$10
weather 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.7% -10.1% 95% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 22 -0.7% -10.1% 95% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 64 -12.6% -20.9% 78% 16% -21.1%
all 64 -12.6% -20.9% 78% 16% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 16% -21.1%
10% -28.5% 6% -28.7%
15% -35.4% 5% -35.6%
20% -41.7% 3% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses50 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage71d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 18? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12PM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 18? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 99¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? SELL No 23¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.03 · official $1.03 (match) · 144 history records