Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:50:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E2
0xe25b…0f1b
world · 100 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$547,565 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$655,721 · open +$49,716
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$667,923
Realized+$655,721
Unrealized+$49,716
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses53 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$2,130
Open positions10
Markets (closed)91 / 100
History coverage89d
Avg bet$90,077
Trades / day36.2
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 10 History 91 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$89
7 days+$89
14 days−$11,402
30 days−$66,798
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $398,000 $397,800 −$200 (-0%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 76¢ 99¢ $135,899 $176,889 +$40,990 (+30%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 72¢ 98¢ $28,605 $39,346 +$10,741 (+38%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 84¢ $25,500 $25,050 −$450 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 31¢ 24¢ $20,918 $16,467 −$4,452 (-21%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 36¢ 50¢ $7,917 $11,028 +$3,112 (+39%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $888 $1,018 +$131 (+15%)
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? No 42¢ 47¢ $236 $264 +$28 (+12%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 6¢ 21¢ $10 $33 +$23 (+244%)
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle? Yes 31¢ 4¢ $236 $28 −$208 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $3,910,207 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $92,114 +$89 +0%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m? Jun 05 $7,868 −$2,868 -36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $115,136 −$12,053 -10%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 04 $3,810 +$2,190 +58%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $398,848 +$1,152 +0%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 35m? Jun 01 $22 +$18 +85%
Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $430 +$70 +16%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $31,560 −$31,560 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $1,480 −$1,480 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $117,166 −$46,830 -40%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 27 $7,998 +$3,175 +40%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $497 −$369 -74%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be g May 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $19,714 +$2,833 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $41,619 +$5,750 +14%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $7,379 +$2,773 +38%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $10,485 +$515 +5%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $49,380 −$11,855 -24%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 23 $48,500 +$855 +2%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 22 $19,805 +$56 +0%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 22 $36,569 +$103 +0%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 22 $192,929 +$905 +0%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 20 $80 +$572 +715%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $2,064 +$1,936 +94%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $45,609 +$16,733 +37%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m? May 18 $1,352 +$693 +51%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $4,100 −$200 -5%
LoL: Myth Esports vs The Bandits - Game 1 Winner May 15 $165 +$93 +56%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 14 $56,526 +$5,014 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 14 $31,419 −$3,960 -13%
Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs Nova Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Ch May 13 $808 +$212 +26%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 10 $38,507 +$16,503 +43%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 08 $30,300 −$7,174 -24%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 55m? May 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than May 05 $66 −$64 -96%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8 May 05 $348 −$306 -88%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9 May 05 $164 +$145 +88%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7 May 05 $75 +$361 +482%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater t May 05 $449 +$147 +33%
The Devil Wears Prada 2 vs. Michael Opening Weekend Box Office May 05 $524 +$1,010 +193%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? May 02 $663 −$18 -3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? May 02 $238 −$238 -100%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? May 02 $6,597 −$4,406 -67%
Will Bitcoin outperform Silver in April 2026? May 02 $40 +$10 +25%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $2,991 +$1,797 +60%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $580,254 +$1,746 +0%
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m? Apr 28 $307 +$196 +64%
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m? Apr 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 95m? Apr 28 $1,743 +$19 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 47% +$91,112
world 35% −$29,839
other 6% +$667,277
crypto 4% +$1,162
economics 4% −$200
sports 2% −$42,983
tech 1% +$89
culture 1% +$18,819
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $1,397 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $1,349 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $5,799 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $13,760 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $0 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 16h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $398,100 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $3 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $9 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $9 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $791 27h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 100¢ $92,114 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $876 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $1,750 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $50 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $100 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $8 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $8 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $100 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $200 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $44 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $3 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $200 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $52 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $164 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $3,584 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $1,061 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $42 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $3,333 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $10,624 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 28 +27.8% +15.7% 64% 39% -10.7%
≤90d 91 +14.9% +4.0% 58% 43% -2.4%
all 91 +14.9% +4.0% 58% 43% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover36.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.0% 43% -2.4%
10% -6.0% 38% -11.8%
15% ← realistic here -15.0% 33% -20.3%
20% -23.4% 25% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $667,923.41 · official $667,923.42 (match) · 3500 history records