Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:11:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E2
0xe25c…7908
weather · 152 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$9,264 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9,320 · open +$56
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,514
Realized−$9,320
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses86 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)175 / 152
History coverage33d
Avg bet$395
Trades / day103.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 5 History 175 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7,495
7 days−$7,382
14 days−$7,204
30 days−$8,351
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? No 91¢ 96¢ $956 $1,011 +$55 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? No 91¢ 94¢ $252 $261 +$9 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? No 73¢ 74¢ $99 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? No 54¢ 53¢ $86 $85 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? No 76¢ 68¢ $65 $58 −$7 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on April 18? No 48¢ 0¢ $229 $0 −$229 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 2? No 85¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 26? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 18? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 3? No 36¢ 0¢ $135 $0 −$135 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 27? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on April 26? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on April 27? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 10? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $204 $0 −$204 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 19? Yes 84¢ 0¢ $172 $0 −$172 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? No 75¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on May 10? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on April 23? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 2? No 16¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on May 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 23? No 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 9? No 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on April 23? No 73¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Yes 78¢ 0¢ $559 $0 −$559 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 8? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on April 18? Jun 14 $229 −$527 -230%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 26? Jun 14 $19 −$106 -550%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 18? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 27? Jun 14 $3 −$7 -206%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on April 26? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on April 27? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 19? Jun 14 $172 −$172 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on May 10? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on April 23? Jun 14 $18 −$45 -254%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on May 12? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 23? Jun 14 $5 −$97 -2049%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on April 23? Jun 14 $11 −$167 -1519%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 8? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 5? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 23? Jun 14 $214 −$218 -102%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 20? Jun 14 $832 −$832 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 24? Jun 14 $1,008 −$1,008 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 22? Jun 14 $75 −$79 -106%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Jun 14 $565 −$565 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 23? Jun 14 $60 −$834 -1400%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 10? Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 10? Jun 14 $129 −$129 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 27? Jun 14 $777 −$776 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on April 29? Jun 14 $184 −$184 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on April 27? Jun 14 $1,730 −$1,959 -113%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C or higher on May 7? Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 20? Jun 14 $92 −$113 -124%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 22? Jun 14 $441 −$453 -103%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,070 +$181 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,219 +$176 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $572 +$213 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,012 −$10 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $237 +$20 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $649 +$17 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $218 +$8 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $460 +$124 +27%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $18 −$15 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $18 −$9 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $111 −$3 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $742 +$50 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,355 +$209 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $520 +$79 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $1,678 −$700 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $22 −$3 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $239 −$74 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $59 +$83 +141%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $434 −$48 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,820 +$558 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $758 +$38 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$8 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$863
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 77¢ $4 0m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 77¢ $39 0m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 75¢ $23 1m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 54¢ $88 9m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $260 16m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $10 16m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $20 16m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $115 20m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $26 20m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $95 21m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $30 21m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $224 31m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $60 31m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $10 31m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 73¢ $9 46m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $128 49m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 74¢ $47 50m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 73¢ $37 50m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 73¢ $7 51m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $23 57m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 87¢ $46 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $63 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 83¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 78¢ $28 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 13? SELL No 6¢ $3 11h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 30¢ $5 12h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 30¢ $6 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -32.6% -39.0% 46% 24% -21.6%
≤30d 160 -12.6% -20.9% 50% 28% -19.6%
≤90d 175 -13.0% -21.2% 49% 28% -20.1%
all 175 -13.0% -21.2% 49% 28% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover103.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 28% -20.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.8% 9% -27.8%
15% -35.7% 5% -34.7%
20% -42.0% 5% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,514.48 · official $1,511.23 (match) · 3500 history records