Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:49:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E2 0xe25d…e6b8 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,227 (+4%) realized +$538 · open +$689
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,691per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$9,961now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$1,167
sports 2% +$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +12.1% +1.4% 75% 75% -7.3%
≤30d 8 +12.1% +1.4% 75% 75% -7.3%
≤90d 8 +12.1% +1.4% 75% 75% -7.3%
all 8 +12.1% +1.4% 75% 75% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.4% 75% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -8.3% 12% -16.2%
15% -17.2% 12% -24.3%
20% -25.3% 12% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$471 vs −$1,122 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$9,961
Realized+$538
Unrealized+$689
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3,691
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 58¢ $9,272 $9,961 +$689 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2,232 +$240 +11%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $318 +$69 +22%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,432 +$191 +13%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $653 +$105 +16%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $4,093 +$2,165 +53%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $8,314 −$688 -8%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $6,337 −$1,556 -25%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $392 +$57 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $2,471 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,472 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $719 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 89¢ $2,232 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $387 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,623 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 81¢ $318 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,280 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 68¢ $152 5h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $758 6h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 84¢ $653 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $6,256 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $6,258 21h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $4,093 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,093 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $3,534 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 52¢ $3,533 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $4,780 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 65¢ $2,390 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 65¢ $2,390 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $6,337 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $449 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $392 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,960.73 · official $9,960.73 (match) · 23 history records