Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:49:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E2 0xe25e…7bdc crypto 315 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$899 (-1%) realized −$899 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate87%275W / 40L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$455per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days−$2,431
14 days−$2,564
30 days−$2,564
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$2,993
sports 3% +$494
other 0% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 194 +0.8% -8.8% 91% 11% -10.4%
≤30d 315 +2.7% -7.1% 87% 22% -10.4%
≤90d 315 +2.7% -7.1% 87% 22% -10.4%
all 315 +2.7% -7.1% 87% 22% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 22% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 11% -19.0%
15% -24.1% 7% -26.8%
20% -31.5% 5% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$826) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$246 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$899
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses275 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)315 / 315
History coverage13d
Avg bet$455
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 315 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $301 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $282 +$29 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $251 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $251 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $226 +$18 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $226 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $201 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $176 +$12 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $176 +$16 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $151 +$17 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $126 +$19 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $126 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $125 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $120 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $122 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $1,302 −$1,201 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1,301 +$13 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $1,277 +$24 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $1,251 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $1,251 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1,227 +$23 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $1,202 +$23 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1,176 +$16 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $1,176 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $1,152 +$22 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1,126 +$14 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $1,077 +$20 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $1,051 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $1,051 +$18 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $1,027 +$25 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $1,001 +$19 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $1,002 +$30 +3%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $1,002 +$22 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $1,026 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $1,001 +$18 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $903 +$39 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $951 +$18 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $928 +$39 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $901 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $901 +$17 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $881 +$15 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $876 +$8 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $301 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $282 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $251 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $251 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $226 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $226 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $201 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $176 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $176 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $151 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $126 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $126 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $125 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $120 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $119 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $122 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $74 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1,302 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,301 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1,277 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,251 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,251 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1,227 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1,202 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,176 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,176 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 769 history records