Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:39:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E2 0xe25f…211c crypto 1030 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate66%684W / 346L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day19.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$19
weather 2% −$5
other 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 +10.6% +0.1% 52% 48% -7.7%
≤30d 339 +3.0% -6.8% 58% 54% -9.6%
≤90d 1030 -1.9% -11.2% 66% 60% -12.2%
all 1030 -1.9% -11.2% 66% 60% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 60% -12.2%
10% -19.7% 43% -20.6%
15% -27.5% 24% -28.3%
20% -34.6% 13% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses684 / 346
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1030 / 1030
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day19.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1030 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $0 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $0 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $0 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $0 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $0 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.57 · official $0.57 (match) · 3500 history records