Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:56:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E2 0xe260…fb72 crypto 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-17%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$38
crypto 32% −$14
other 12% +$14
sports 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 67% 67% -24.9%
≤30d 5 +46.4% +32.4% 60% 60% -1.2%
≤90d 6 +22.0% +10.4% 50% 50% -9.5%
all 8 +1.8% -7.9% 38% 38% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 38% -24.2%
10% -16.7% 25% -31.5%
15% -24.8% 25% -38.1%
20% -32.1% 25% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$16 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage131d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $10 +$28 +281%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $10 −$9 -95%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Mar 23 $100 −$18 -18%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Feb 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records