Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:26:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E2 0xe262…98d1 sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$203 (+20%) realized +$1,026 · open −$823
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +71% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +48% what you keep after slip
Net edge+48%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$692
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+54.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +70.8% +54.5% 100% 67% +66.9%
≤30d 3 +70.8% +54.5% 100% 67% +66.9%
≤90d 3 +70.8% +54.5% 100% 67% +66.9%
all 3 +70.8% +54.5% 100% 67% +66.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +54.5% 67% +66.9%
10% +39.7% 67% +51.0%
15% +26.2% 67% +36.4%
20% +13.9% 33% +23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +84% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +71% · $-wt +84% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized+$1,026
Unrealized−$823
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 65¢ 0¢ $800 $1 −$799 (-100%)
Map Handicap: PR (-2.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+2.5) Paper Rex 31¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $53 +$84 +159%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +8%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $105 +$46 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $137 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Paper Rex 68¢ $105 4h
Map Handicap: PR (-2.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+2.5) BUY Paper Rex 31¢ $25 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 9h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 64¢ $630 9h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $53 13h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 67¢ $210 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.73 · official $146.73 (match) · 8 history records