Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:03:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe265…9c84 other 148 markets active 0h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,723 (+1%) realized +$1,723 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate29%42W / 105L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$1,258per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$371now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$8
14 days−$29
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$80
politics 32% −$73
sports 20% +$1,897
economics 3% −$16
world 3% −$47
crypto 1% +$13
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 36 -0.6% -10.1% 8% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 88 -14.2% -22.3% 10% 6% -8.9%
all 147 -1.3% -10.7% 29% 11% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 11% -8.7%
10% -19.3% 11% -17.4%
15% -27.1% 11% -25.4%
20% -34.2% 8% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,735) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$10 · ×6.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.63 per $1 lost it wins $2.63
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$371
Realized+$1,723
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses42 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)147 / 148
History coverage145d
Avg bet$1,258
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $371 $371 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $267 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $286 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $235 +$1 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $3,927 −$5 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $639 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 15 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $544 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $814 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $5,934 −$6 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $2,932 −$3 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $2,519 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,845 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $990 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $953 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $799 −$1 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $59 +$106 +180%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $3,722 −$6 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $736 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $2,634 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 01 $528 +$1 +0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $1,868 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $436 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $344 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $2,216 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $3,918 −$4 -0%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,035 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $4,827 −$5 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,264 −$2 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $77 +$57 +73%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $4,647 −$5 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1,616 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $3,426 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,257 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $4,844 −$5 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $1,660 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $4,455 −$7 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $2,948 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,675 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $266 25m
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $267 1h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $286 23h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $286 25h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $569 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $570 4d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $638 5d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $639 5d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $593 5d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $594 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $568 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $569 6d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $517 6d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $518 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $543 7d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $544 7d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $543 7d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $544 8d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $533 9d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $533 9d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $371 9d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $812 9d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $814 9d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $899 11d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $900 11d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $969 11d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $970 12d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $761 12d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $762 12d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $814 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $371.11 · official $371.11 (match) · 507 history records