Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:17:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E2 0xe267…eb96 sports 295 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$15 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate59%171W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$244
14 days+$260
30 days+$286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$284
crypto 25% +$93
other 3% +$42
finance 1% +$19
tech 1% +$27
world 0% +$8
politics 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +19.9% +8.5% 79% 68% +23.2%
≤30d 21 +21.7% +10.1% 81% 71% +20.5%
≤90d 291 -11.1% -19.6% 59% 52% -11.1%
all 291 -11.1% -19.6% 59% 52% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 52% -11.1%
10% -27.3% 41% -19.6%
15% -34.3% 30% -27.4%
20% -40.8% 22% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses171 / 120
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions3
Markets (closed)291 / 295
History coverage61d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 291 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 74¢ $31 $39 +$8 (+27%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 5.5 Corners Over 50¢ 93¢ $20 $37 +$17 (+86%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 56¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 116 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $12 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 26 $12 +$9 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 26 $58 +$47 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $117 −$25 -21%
Valorant: T1 Academy vs So:sweet - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $12 +$10 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 25 $12 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 25 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $8 +$8 +92%
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $33 +$11 +34%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $9 +$3 +32%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $55 +$25 +46%
Valorant: REBORN vs Misa Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $27 +$3 +11%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $91 +$50 +55%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $141 +$126 +89%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $147 +$16 +11%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $41 +$27 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 27 $37 −$36 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 27 $33 +$6 +18%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 27 $9 +$6 +70%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $101 −$100 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $8 +$5 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 27 $8 +$6 +76%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 27 $227 −$200 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 27 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 27 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 27 $12 +$6 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 27 $8 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 27 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 27 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 26 $8 +$5 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 26 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 26 $17 +$13 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 26 $20 +$8 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 26 $25 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 26 $12 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 26 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 26 $12 +$12 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 26 $62 +$11 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 26 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 26 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 26 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 26 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 26 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 26 $21 +$26 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 26 $61 +$18 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $20 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $31 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $12 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $12 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $9 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $12 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $8 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $12 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $12 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $12 18h
Valorant: T1 Academy vs So:sweet - Map 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $22 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $12 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $12 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $12 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $12 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $12 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.49 · official $77.39 (match) · 654 history records