Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:16:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E2 0xe26a…862e world 19 markets active 6d ago coverage 488d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% +$3
other 19% +$1
sports 5% −$8
politics 1% +$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.4% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 7 +1.6% -8.1% 43% 14% -8.2%
≤90d 11 +4.5% -5.5% 55% 18% -8.3%
all 19 -1.0% -10.4% 58% 16% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 16% -10.6%
10% -19.0% 11% -19.2%
15% -26.8% 11% -27.0%
20% -34.0% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

488d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage488d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $2 $0 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $36 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $36 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $4 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $14 +$2 +11%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $35 −$1 -2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $38 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $2 +$1 +37%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $33 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 10 $1 $0 +6%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 23–30? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Cade Cunningham win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Mar 23 $3 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 50-51°F on February 24? Feb 24 $1 $0 -12%
Gonzaga vs. Washington State Feb 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the SPD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election? Feb 23 $3 +$1 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes $2 6d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes $2 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $14 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $22 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $21 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $15 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $28 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $8 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $9 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $27 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 8d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 8d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 8d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $15 8d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $34 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $13 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $22 9d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $39 9d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 66¢ $38 9d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes $3 32d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes $2 32d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 32d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 32d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 32d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $5 32d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $7 33d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $26 33d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $33 33d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records