Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:55:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe26b…2e41 politics 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%5W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 75% −$5
other 14% −$2
sports 10% −$1
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 40 -0.2% -9.7% 12% 0% -9.7%
all 40 -0.2% -9.7% 12% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses5 / 35
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage89d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $232 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $54 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $169 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $111 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $110 −$1 -1%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $55 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $228 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $55 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $113 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $55 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $56 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $56 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $56 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $234 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $115 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $117 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 07 $58 $0 -1%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $58 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $58 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $120 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $121 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $60 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $60 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $121 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $121 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $60 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $61 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $61 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $54 1h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $54 1h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $54 3d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $54 3d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $54 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 7d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $54 7d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $54 11d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $54 11d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $54 12d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $54 12d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $54 13d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $54 13d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $54 14d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $55 14d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $55 19d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 19d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 19d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $55 19d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $55 20d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $55 20d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $55 23d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $55 23d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $56 24d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 24d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 31d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $54 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.78 · official $53.78 (match) · 206 history records