Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:25:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E2 0xe26b…a9ec sports 1582 markets active 2h ago coverage 176d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 175d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$899 (-4%) realized −$954 · open +$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%711W / 861L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$164est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$262now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days−$124
14 days−$295
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$1,003
other 3% −$88
world 0% −$12
crypto 0% +$8
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -8.6% -17.3% 48% 46% -18.0%
≤30d 248 -3.6% -12.8% 46% 45% -8.1%
≤90d 843 -9.1% -17.7% 47% 43% -9.9%
all 1572 -11.0% -19.5% 45% 43% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 43% -13.5%
10% -27.2% 37% -21.7%
15% -34.2% 30% -29.3%
20% -40.7% 24% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$12 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$262
Realized−$954
Unrealized+$55
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses711 / 861
Est. fees paid−$164
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1572 / 1582
History coverage176d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1572 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots No 21¢ 50¢ $25 $60 +$35 (+138%)
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals No 61¢ 84¢ $30 $42 +$12 (+39%)
Malik Tillman: 3+ shots No 62¢ 65¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Playoffs ReThink 42¢ 100¢ $13 $30 +$17 (+136%)
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group C INFURITY Gaming 82¢ 78¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Playoffs Fire Flux Esports 68¢ 100¢ $17 $24 +$8 (+47%)
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B Clutchain 72¢ 68¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs K27 58¢ 51¢ $15 $14 −$2 (-12%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 30¢ 26¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-12%)
Counter-Strike: Arch vs WBT Academy (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Playoffs Arch 61¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 229 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Hermine Esports Club (BO3) - ESEA European F Jun 19 $16 −$6 -36%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $6 +$7 +124%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 19 $8 +$4 +50%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $21 +$15 +70%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 19 $8 +$4 +52%
Valorant: Fuego vs Contra (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea Jun 19 $8 +$10 +124%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 19 $26 +$18 +67%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs So:sweet (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 18 $11 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 18 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 18 $23 −$22 -98%
Cyle Larin: 4+ shots Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 18 $4 +$7 +157%
Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ goals Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $17 +$16 +97%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $26 +$38 +146%
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $7 +$22 +325%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 18 $8 +$24 +307%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA Euro Jun 18 $25 −$24 -99%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - Stake R Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Antoine Semenyo: 3+ shots Jun 18 $28 +$22 +80%
James Rodríguez: 1+ goals Jun 18 $35 +$13 +38%
Andrej Kramarić: 2+ shots Jun 18 $15 +$13 +83%
Declan Rice: 2+ shots Jun 18 $45 +$14 +31%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs 4M (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri Jun 17 $64 +$28 +44%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 17 $6 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 17 $22 −$22 -99%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $20 +$13 +67%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $4 $0 -10%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 17 $24 +$5 +21%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals Jun 17 $52 +$18 +34%
Michael Olise: 3+ shots Jun 16 $18 +$20 +110%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $6 +$7 +109%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 16 $9 −$8 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 16 $18 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $17 +$6 +32%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $10 +$12 +119%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $5 +$4 +73%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Jun 16 $25 +$12 +46%
Counter-Strike: AaB Bulls vs WAZABI (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division 1 Jun 16 $22 −$22 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $10 +$3 +34%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 16 $25 −$24 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $30 1h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots BUY No 21¢ $26 2h
Malik Tillman: 3+ shots BUY No 62¢ $30 2h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals P BUY ReThink 42¢ $13 4h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Hermine Esports Club (BO3) - ESEA European F BUY QUAZAR 77¢ $16 4h
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European BUY Fire Flux Esports 68¢ $17 4h
Counter-Strike: Arch vs WBT Academy (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Playo BUY Arch 61¢ $12 4h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - Unite BUY INFURITY Gaming 82¢ $30 13h
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 72¢ $23 13h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 52¢ $5 20h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs So:sweet (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular BUY So:sweet 34¢ $4 20h
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $31 20h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 32¢ $9 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $13 20h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 58¢ $16 20h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 1WIN 44¢ $6 20h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed BUY SHISHKA 26¢ $11 20h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Infinite 41¢ $11 20h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 58¢ $21 20h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A BUY eSuba 66¢ $8 20h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY Sashi Esport 48¢ $5 21h
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY ONSIDE GAMING 65¢ $8 21h
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY YFP Gaming 41¢ $23 22h
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY M80 59¢ $26 22h
Valorant: Fuego vs Contra (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea BUY Fuego 44¢ $8 22h
Cyle Larin: 4+ shots BUY No 61¢ $30 23h
Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $15 25h
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $15 28h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA Euro BUY Inner Circle Academy 51¢ $25 32h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - Stake R BUY Spirit Academy 26¢ $4 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $261.92 · official $261.92 (match) · 3500 history records