Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:35:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E2 0xe26c…1903 other 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,380 (+8%) realized +$2,266 · open −$886
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate73%22W / 8L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$496per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$1,657now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$79
7 days+$66
14 days+$397
30 days+$1,137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$46
other 38% −$252
sports 5% +$213
politics 2% +$314
crypto 1% +$81
tech 1% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.8% -7.9% 82% 45% -8.6%
≤30d 24 +10.7% +0.1% 75% 46% -2.0%
≤90d 30 +9.2% -1.2% 73% 43% -2.1%
all 30 +9.2% -1.2% 73% 43% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 43% -2.1%
10% -10.7% 13% -11.5%
15% -19.3% 7% -20.0%
20% -27.2% 3% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$72 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.15 per $1 lost it wins $3.15
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$1,657
Realized+$2,266
Unrealized−$886
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses22 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)30 / 36
History coverage59d
Avg bet$496
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 89¢ 96¢ $700 $751 +$51 (+7%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? No 81¢ 68¢ $517 $431 −$86 (-17%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 87¢ $400 $392 −$8 (-2%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $75 $62 −$13 (-18%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 61¢ 0¢ $832 $1 −$832 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $525 −$400 -76%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $488 +$74 +15%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $470 +$35 +7%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $446 +$48 +11%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $465 +$23 +5%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $303 +$38 +13%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $202 +$32 +16%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $203 +$70 +34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2,849 +$149 +5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $103 −$12 -11%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 11 $724 +$8 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $462 −$11 -2%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 10 $1,118 +$23 +2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 04 $100 +$319 +319%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,807 +$302 +17%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $427 +$19 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,326 +$274 +21%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $169 −$2 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $874 +$98 +11%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 24 $213 +$79 +37%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 24 $114 +$8 +7%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 23 $178 +$37 +21%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $24 −$24 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 14 $189 −$71 -38%
Netanyahu out by May 31? May 06 $298 +$31 +10%
Will Houston Rockets advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 May 02 $423 +$111 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $298 +$5 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 28 $99 +$21 +21%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Apr 21 $50 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 82¢ $376 14m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 22¢ $61 15m
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 79¢ $147 22m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 23¢ $64 22m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 91¢ $525 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 86¢ $488 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 92¢ $470 15h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? SELL No 100¢ $494 18h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 89¢ $446 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 100¢ $488 21h
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $403 22h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $465 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $303 42h
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $303 42h
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 88¢ $403 42h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $234 42h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $202 42h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $272 45h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $203 45h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $20 45h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,070 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $391 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $110 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 16¢ $91 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $577 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $103 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $869 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 5d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 12¢ $21 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,657.45 · official $1,657.45 (match) · 166 history records