Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe26f…ae81 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$37 (-38%) realized −$33 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$41
world 10% $0
sports 5% −$4
crypto 5% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-47.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -42.4% -47.9% 38% 38% -65.7%
≤30d 8 -42.4% -47.9% 38% 38% -65.7%
≤90d 8 -42.4% -47.9% 38% 38% -65.7%
all 8 -42.4% -47.9% 38% 38% -65.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.9% 38% -65.7%
10% -52.9% 38% -69.0%
15% -57.5% 25% -72.0%
20% -61.6% 25% -74.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage3d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 50¢ 14¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +74%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 −$24 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 43m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 44m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 44m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 91¢ $9 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 15h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 80¢ $8 19h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 81¢ $6 38h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 39h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 40h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 40h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 43h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.20 · official $31.20 (match) · 16 history records