Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:04:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe270…eab5 sports 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (709 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$420 (-6%) realized −$513 · open +$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%29W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day708.7pace
Fees−$121est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$249
other 10% −$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (709 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-36.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -30.0% -36.7% 48% 43% -18.5%
≤30d 61 -30.0% -36.7% 48% 43% -18.5%
≤90d 61 -30.0% -36.7% 48% 43% -18.5%
all 61 -30.0% -36.7% 48% 43% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover708.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.7% 43% -18.5%
10% ← realistic here -42.7% 30% -26.3%
15% -48.3% 15% -33.4%
20% -53.3% 10% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$41 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,106
Realized−$513
Unrealized+$93
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses29 / 32
Est. fees paid−$121
Open positions20
Markets (closed)61 / 81
History coverage1d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day708.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Under 67¢ 86¢ $140 $179 +$38 (+27%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Under 69¢ 86¢ $137 $170 +$33 (+24%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 Under 47¢ 62¢ $106 $140 +$34 (+32%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Under 48¢ 62¢ $103 $131 +$28 (+28%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Under 79¢ 96¢ $95 $115 +$20 (+21%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Under 18¢ 26¢ $45 $66 +$21 (+46%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 54¢ 36¢ $76 $51 −$25 (-33%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 4.5 Under 87¢ 99¢ $44 $49 +$6 (+14%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 Under 74¢ 96¢ $38 $49 +$11 (+30%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 57¢ 44¢ $60 $46 −$14 (-23%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 0.5 Under 26¢ 26¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Mexico 30¢ 14¢ $52 $25 −$27 (-52%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-17%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Over 91¢ 74¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-19%)
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Korea Republic 25¢ 12¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-54%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $223 +$57 +26%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $123 +$20 +16%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 25 $90 +$54 +60%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $96 +$44 +45%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $131 +$14 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $126 +$9 +7%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $246 −$16 -6%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 24 $13 −$13 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $78 −$47 -60%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $98 −$37 -38%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $44 +$31 +72%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $51 −$42 -82%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $37 −$26 -69%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $56 −$39 -70%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $30 −$25 -84%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $57 −$25 -45%
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $323 +$103 +32%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $284 +$35 +12%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $346 −$171 -50%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $32 +$6 +18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $32 −$31 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $399 −$61 -15%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $244 +$9 +4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $63 −$63 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $106 +$14 +13%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $246 −$171 -70%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $96 −$37 -38%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $61 +$18 +30%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $75 +$43 +57%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $54 −$47 -88%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $52 +$28 +55%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $13 −$4 -30%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $137 +$32 +24%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $130 +$46 +35%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $73 +$28 +38%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $42 −$21 -49%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $25 +$5 +19%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $34 +$11 +32%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $58 +$47 +80%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $92 −$91 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $131 +$46 +35%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $132 −$4 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 86¢ $26 6m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $63 7m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 27¢ $33 7m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 86¢ $35 8m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $44 9m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 26¢ $27 9m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 83¢ $9 18m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 82¢ $10 19m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 57¢ $20 19m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 57¢ $10 19m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 81¢ $49 20m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 56¢ $14 21m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 82¢ $9 21m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 81¢ $16 22m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $54 22m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 81¢ $2 22m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 81¢ $1 22m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $79 24m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 54¢ $7 24m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 53¢ $15 24m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 79¢ $10 25m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 53¢ $1 25m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 77¢ $8 26m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 76¢ $34 26m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 78¢ $9 27m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 50¢ $6 28m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 75¢ $2 28m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 75¢ $1 28m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 75¢ $8 28m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 77¢ $18 28m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,105.57 · official $1,105.57 (match) · 964 history records