Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:27:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E2 0xe276…916f crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$102 (+10%) realized +$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%10W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$74
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +2.9% -6.9% 42% 42% -0.2%
≤30d 24 +2.9% -6.9% 42% 42% -0.2%
≤90d 24 +2.9% -6.9% 42% 42% -0.2%
all 24 +2.9% -6.9% 42% 42% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 42% -0.2%
10% -15.8% 42% -9.8%
15% -23.9% 42% -18.5%
20% -31.4% 42% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$18 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses10 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage4d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $267 +$15 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $48 +$42 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$9 +60%
XRP Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $218 −$24 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $24 +$18 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$21 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$22 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$66 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$65 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET Jun 13 $42 +$56 +134%
XRP Up or Down on June 12? Jun 13 $25 −$20 -80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10PM ET Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $7 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $262 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $267 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $19 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $90 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $48 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $16 16h
XRP Up or Down on June 14? SELL Up 26¢ $7 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $19 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $21 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $27 19h
XRP Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 28¢ $8 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 20h
XRP Up or Down on June 14? SELL Up 35¢ $8 20h
XRP Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 43¢ $10 21h
XRP Up or Down on June 14? SELL Up 40¢ $10 21h
XRP Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 44¢ $12 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $16 21h
XRP Up or Down on June 14? SELL Down 56¢ $10 21h
XRP Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 59¢ $11 21h
XRP Up or Down on June 14? SELL Down 53¢ $27 21h
XRP Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 56¢ $30 21h
XRP Up or Down on June 14? SELL Down 52¢ $12 21h
XRP Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 55¢ $13 21h
XRP Up or Down on June 14? SELL Down 52¢ $28 21h
XRP Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 56¢ $32 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $20 21h
XRP Up or Down on June 14? SELL Down 57¢ $93 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records