Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:54:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E2 0xe278…8d21 crypto 58 markets active 11h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$279 (+4%) realized +$279 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate91%50W / 5L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$7
culture 25% −$8
crypto 16% −$7
finance 5% +$300
tech 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 40 -2.2% -11.5% 95% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 50 -3.7% -12.8% 94% 0% -9.8%
all 55 -1.7% -11.1% 91% 2% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 2% -5.6%
10% -19.6% 2% -14.6%
15% -27.3% 2% -22.8%
20% -34.5% 2% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×12.36 per $1 lost it wins $12.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$279
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses50 / 5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)55 / 58
History coverage148d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $30 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 22? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 17? Jun 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3,446 −$4 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 13? Jun 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 12? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 8? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on June 5? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 5? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 4? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 2? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 1? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 29? Jun 01 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 28? May 29 $11 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 27? May 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 27? May 28 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 26? May 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 25? May 26 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 18-24? May 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 23? May 25 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 21? May 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 21? May 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 20? May 21 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 20? May 21 $33 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 19? May 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 19? May 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 18? May 19 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 18? May 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 10h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 35h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 5d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $11 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $11 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 7d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $3,442 8d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $3,446 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $11 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 10d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $11 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $30 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 15d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 15d
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 18d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $30 20d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.93 · official $40.93 (match) · 116 history records