Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:21:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe27c…3047 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 53d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,206 (-56%) realized −$1,793 · open −$413
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -77% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -79% what you keep after slip
Net edge-79%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$361per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$1,053now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 53d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$1,793
world 37% −$413
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-78.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 9 -76.7% -78.9% 22% 0% -82.4%
all 9 -76.7% -78.9% 22% 0% -82.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -78.9% 0% -82.4%
10% -80.9% 0% -84.1%
15% -82.8% 0% -85.7%
20% -84.5% 0% -87.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -81% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -77% · $-wt -81% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$259 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$1,053
Realized−$1,793
Unrealized−$413
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage53d
Avg bet$361
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $919 $643 −$276 (-30%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $547 $410 −$137 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 29 $135 −$135 -100%
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch? Apr 29 $924 −$634 -69%
Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 28 $221 −$221 -100%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $182 +$1 +0%
Pharos FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 28 $222 +$18 +8%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 28 $807 −$807 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $547 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $200 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $40 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $11 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $500 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $100 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $4 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $65 47h
Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 15¢ $128 49d
Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 49d
Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 49d
Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 49d
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch? BUY Yes 37¢ $137 49d
Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 49d
Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY Yes 23¢ $119 49d
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $85 50d
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $91 50d
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 50d
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $5 50d
Pharos FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 94¢ $239 50d
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $182 50d
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch? SELL Yes 38¢ $171 50d
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch? SELL Yes 38¢ $61 50d
Pharos FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 50d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY Yes 34¢ $807 50d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 50d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 50d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 50d
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch? SELL Yes 38¢ $52 50d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,052.85 · official $1,052.85 (match) · 46 history records