Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:49:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E2 0xe27c…79e0 sports 886 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,300 (-3%) realized −$1,639 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate58%513W / 371L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$388est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days−$3,345
14 days−$2,419
30 days−$1,846
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$966
other 3% −$544
crypto 1% −$133
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 135 -39.5% -45.3% 35% 34% -71.6%
≤30d 259 -6.6% -15.5% 53% 52% -27.7%
≤90d 677 -2.9% -12.1% 58% 57% -10.9%
all 884 -4.0% -13.2% 58% 57% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 57% -12.1%
10% -21.5% 51% -20.5%
15% -29.1% 40% -28.2%
20% -36.0% 27% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$42 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$1,639
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses513 / 371
Est. fees paid−$388
Open positions2
Markets (closed)884 / 886
History coverage136d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 884 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Yes 59¢ 63¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+7%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Dplus KIA 67¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffs LOS 68¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Monte 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Legacy 41¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Leviatan Esports 54¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Gen.G 69¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 G2 60¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner LOS 48¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
LoL: Dorado Gaming vs Supernova - Game 1 Winner Supernova 60¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Zizou Bergs 71¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik Alexander Bublik 60¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Bilibili Gaming 75¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winner Invictus Gaming 75¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Alex de Minaur Luciano Darderi 51¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
LoL: Dorado Gaming vs Supernova - Game 2 Winner Dorado Gaming 38¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bordeaux: Benjamin Bonzi vs Tallon Griekspoor Benjamin Bonzi 50¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner PARIVISION 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Fight to Go the Distance? Yes 70¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner paiN 57¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jesper de Jong vs Nuno Borges Jesper de Jong 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Hugo Dellien vs Jesper de Jong Hugo Dellien 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $14 +$6 +42%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$3 +29%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $10 +$6 +63%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$9 +84%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$6 -63%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $14 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -80%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $12 −$5 -41%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$6 -98%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+6.5) Jun 12 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $21 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $37 +$7 +20%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $30 +$7 +24%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $13 +$16 +121%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $41 +$49 +118%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $24 +$18 +74%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $19 +$4 +23%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $41 −$41 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $30 +$11 +38%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $38 −$37 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$18 +88%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$31 +153%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $27 +$22 +81%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $17 +$10 +57%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Set Handicap: Garin (-1.5) vs Choinski (+1.5) Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 11 $67 −$44 -65%
Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs Basilashvili Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Zizou Bergs vs Terence Atmane Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Fonseca Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs Jun 11 $29 −$29 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $36 −$36 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $37 −$37 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 59¢ $11 31m
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 39m
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 99¢ $13 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 76¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $16 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $10 2h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL LYON 100¢ $20 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 4h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 50¢ $10 4h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL LYON 99¢ $19 4h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 53¢ $10 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 23¢ $4 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 60¢ $5 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 60¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $17 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 80¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 40¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 42¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 72¢ $12 2d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+6.5) BUY Spirit 42¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 34¢ $21 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $44 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 83¢ $37 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $37 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 80¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $29 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.75 · official $10.91 (match) · 1916 history records