Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:05:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe27d…e707 weather 583 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$44 (-4%) realized −$58 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate19%106W / 445L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$12
14 days+$28
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 90% −$39
sports 5% −$13
tech 4% −$10
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 165 +2.6% -7.2% 12% 12% -9.0%
≤30d 332 -1.8% -11.1% 12% 11% -25.9%
≤90d 551 -2.6% -11.9% 19% 18% -20.6%
all 551 -2.6% -11.9% 19% 18% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 18% -20.6%
10% -20.3% 16% -28.2%
15% -28.0% 16% -35.1%
20% -35.1% 15% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×3.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses106 / 445
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions32
Markets (closed)551 / 583
History coverage69d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 551 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Yes 7¢ 100¢ $1 $14 +$13 (+1325%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Yes 10¢ 94¢ $1 $10 +$9 (+843%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Yes 14¢ 100¢ $1 $7 +$6 (+624%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Yes 7¢ 14¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+93%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? Yes 12¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+79%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? Yes 25¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? Yes 25¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 17? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 17? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? Yes 20¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 16? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 16? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 16? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +338%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 +$29 +3233%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$7 +637%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$8 +770%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 +$5 +974%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.56 · official $45.41 (match) · 1592 history records