trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will McCartney Kessler win the 2026 Women's Australian Open? | Feb 05 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Jan 05 | $5 | $0 | +3% |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | Jan 05 | $28 | +$2 | +8% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Oct 29 | $5 | $0 | -6% |
| Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 | Aug 23 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Mike Trout win the 2025 AL MVP? | Aug 23 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Kim Kyung-soo be the Democratic Party of Korea's candidate for pr | May 24 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 29 | $20 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? | Feb 08 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024? | Jan 09 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025? | Dec 06 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will any other Republican Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Elec | Nov 07 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the FED change rates to another level after Nov meeting? | Nov 01 | $3 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Oscar Piastri win the 2024 F1 season? | Oct 24 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2024 F1 season? | Oct 24 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will another driver win the 2024 F1 season? | Oct 24 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will another player win the Ballon d'Or? | Oct 21 | $4 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or? | Oct 21 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Phil Foden win the Ballon d’Or? | Oct 21 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Titans win Super Bowl 2025? | Oct 18 | $308 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? | Oct 18 | $309 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025? | Oct 18 | $307 | $0 | -0% |
| Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Elec | Oct 11 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Oct 11 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Oct 11 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Hillary Clinton win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Ele | Oct 09 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 26 | +0.3% | -9.2% | 38% | 0% | -9.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.2% | 0% | -9.4% |
| 10% | -17.9% | 0% | -18.1% |
| 15% | -25.8% | 0% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -33.1% | 0% | -33.2% |