Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:08:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe285…c8ce crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-4%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -21.4% -28.9% 64% 9% -29.1%
≤30d 11 -21.4% -28.9% 64% 9% -29.1%
≤90d 11 -21.4% -28.9% 64% 9% -29.1%
all 11 -21.4% -28.9% 64% 9% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 9% -29.1%
10% -35.7% 0% -35.9%
15% -41.9% 0% -42.1%
20% -47.6% 0% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records