Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:52:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E2 0xe289…c31a sports 286 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,493 (-2%) realized −$1,600 · open +$107
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate74%210W / 74L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$296per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$273est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1,407now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$968
7 days−$968
14 days−$968
30 days−$968
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$895
other 14% −$638
politics 4% +$190
crypto 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -72.2% -74.8% 25% 25% -36.9%
≤30d 4 -72.2% -74.8% 25% 25% -36.9%
≤90d 180 +3.5% -6.4% 72% 55% -11.2%
all 284 +0.9% -8.7% 74% 52% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 52% -11.2%
10% -17.5% 36% -19.7%
15% -25.4% 26% -27.5%
20% -32.8% 18% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$242 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$1,407
Realized−$1,600
Unrealized+$107
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses210 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$273
Open positions2
Markets (closed)284 / 286
History coverage119d
Avg bet$296
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 284 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Over 90¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,111 +$111 (+11%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,007 +$225 +11%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tomas Etcheverry vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 20 $332 −$332 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 20 $429 −$429 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 20 $432 −$432 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner May 10 $411 +$19 +5%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev May 10 $340 +$72 +21%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $270 +$69 +26%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Sebastian Ofner May 09 $264 +$6 +2%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $696 −$696 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $299 −$164 -55%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perri May 09 $609 +$91 +15%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic May 08 $204 −$204 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sebastian Baez vs Alexander Bublik May 08 $202 +$137 +67%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Caty McNally vs Iga Swiatek May 08 $107 +$13 +12%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $365 +$290 +79%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Tomas Machac May 07 $202 −$202 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ethan Quinn vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz May 07 $102 −$102 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Gianluca Cadena May 07 $204 +$327 +160%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $320 +$323 +101%
LoL: Gen.G vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 06 $201 +$19 +10%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 06 $606 −$606 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 04 $201 +$55 +27%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 04 $303 −$303 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier May 04 $303 −$303 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Jaime Fa May 04 $202 −$202 -100%
LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Play May 04 $301 +$56 +18%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 04 $201 −$201 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic May 04 $204 −$204 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5) May 04 $404 −$404 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $204 −$204 -100%
Canadiens vs. Lightning May 04 $201 +$289 +144%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $346 +$286 +83%
Magic vs. Pistons May 03 $307 −$273 -89%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $264 +$384 +146%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner May 02 $200 +$17 +8%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $509 +$609 +120%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) May 01 $353 +$112 +32%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Apr 30 $201 +$46 +23%
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx Apr 30 $204 +$510 +250%
Utah vs. Golden Knights Apr 30 $202 +$131 +65%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 30 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 30 $522 −$522 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $321 +$88 +27%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $202 +$126 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 30 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 29 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 29 $503 +$107 +21%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $202 −$202 -100%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Rafael Jodar Apr 29 $603 +$120 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $305 36m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $2,122 36m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 36m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $100 37m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 37m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 37m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $1,003 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $2,007 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY Team Falcons 87¢ $190 40d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY Team Falcons 87¢ $238 40d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $430 40d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 95¢ $411 40d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $411 40d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 82¢ $340 40d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage SELL Spirit 100¢ $340 40d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY Spirit 79¢ $270 40d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Jannik Sinner 98¢ $171 41d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Jannik Sinner 98¢ $42 41d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Jannik Sinner 98¢ $50 41d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tomas Etcheverry vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Tomas Etcheverry 76¢ $332 41d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY PARIVISION 72¢ $432 41d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves SELL Timberwolves 16¢ $134 41d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 34¢ $299 42d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 58¢ $696 42d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perri BUY Lorenzo Musetti 87¢ $609 42d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 68¢ $2 42d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 68¢ $13 42d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 68¢ $189 42d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sebastian Baez vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 59¢ $202 42d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Caty McNally vs Iga Swiatek BUY Iga Swiatek 89¢ $107 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,407.43 · official $1,407.43 (match) · 753 history records