Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:23:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe28a…1131 politics 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 288d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate34%15W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% $0
world 31% −$2
other 19% +$1
sports 10% $0
crypto 4% $0
culture 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.6% -13.7% 14% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 10 -3.3% -12.5% 20% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 10 -3.3% -12.5% 20% 0% -10.2%
all 44 +0.0% -9.5% 34% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 2% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

288d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses15 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage288d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $55 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $42 $0 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $4 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 18 $26 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $19 $0 -2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $1 $0 -22%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $33 $0 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 29 $27 $0 +1%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Dec 27 $4 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 16 $9 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Oct 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 23 $7 $0 +6%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 17 $7 $0 -2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Oct 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Oct 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 12 $22 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $29 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 30 $29 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $1 $0 +5%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $20 $0 +1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 28 $7 $0 -2%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 24 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $4 +$1 +21%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 23 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 21 $32 −$1 -2%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Sep 08 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $28 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $28 3h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $9 41h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 41h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $11 44h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $13 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $17 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $16 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $11 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $4 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $15 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $13 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $27 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 10¢ $4 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 10¢ $4 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $19 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $19 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.33 · official $0.00 (match) · 168 history records