Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:43:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe28f…2af6 sports 305 markets active 1h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate88%266W / 37L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$49
14 days+$6
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$9
crypto 28% −$18
other 11% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +192.5% +164.7% 100% 100% +43.2%
≤30d 33 +18.3% +7.0% 70% 55% -15.3%
≤90d 135 -1.2% -10.6% 73% 48% -14.5%
all 303 +7.0% -3.1% 88% 32% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 32% -8.9%
10% -12.4% 17% -17.6%
15% -20.9% 10% -25.6%
20% -28.6% 8% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$18 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses266 / 37
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)303 / 305
History coverage222d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 +$8 +26%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $3 +$20 +660%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 +$10 +49%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$11 +36%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 +$4 +188%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $20 +$10 +48%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $16 +$4 +25%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $39 +$4 +11%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $36 +$3 +7%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $29 +$7 +25%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 01 $58 −$58 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 31 $56 +$2 +3%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $56 $0 +1%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $30 +$4 +13%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $28 +$23 +83%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $10 +$18 +176%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner May 30 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner May 30 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 30 $61 +$9 +15%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner May 30 $30 +$5 +16%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $68 +$6 +8%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 May 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 28 $20 +$4 +20%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playof May 27 $20 +$3 +17%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $10 +$4 +44%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $19 +$1 +5%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 27 $5 +$7 +128%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 26 $10 +$7 +67%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 26 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-25? May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Roun May 25 $10 +$5 +46%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - May 25 $30 +$4 +13%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $10 +$3 +26%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $66 +$2 +3%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 25 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 24 $20 +$3 +13%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner May 23 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 23 $50 +$10 +20%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi May 22 $20 +$5 +23%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 22 $30 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner May 22 $10 +$1 +12%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $20 +$6 +30%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $30 +$3 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $30 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026- BUY 78¢ $20 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY 13¢ $3 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY 79¢ $30 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) BUY 66¢ $20 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY 73¢ $30 4d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $21 13d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $20 13d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 50¢ $5 14d
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 67¢ $20 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 47¢ $10 16d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 18d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 80¢ $16 18d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs SELL Karmine Corp 100¢ $43 18d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 90¢ $39 19d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Spirit 100¢ $39 19d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Spirit 93¢ $36 19d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Dplus KIA 100¢ $36 19d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 80¢ $29 19d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner BUY JD Gaming 85¢ $58 25d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA 100¢ $58 25d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 97¢ $56 25d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner SELL Top Esports 100¢ $56 25d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 99¢ $56 25d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $34 25d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 88¢ $30 25d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 54¢ $28 25d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 25d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $12 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.83 · official $49.83 · 688 history records