Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:31:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe293…78d5 other 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate45%28W / 34L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$4
other 29% +$4
crypto 14% $0
politics 11% +$1
sports 4% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 15 -0.4% -9.9% 27% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 15 -0.4% -9.9% 27% 0% -10.0%
all 62 +1.2% -8.5% 45% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 2% -9.4%
10% -17.2% 2% -18.1%
15% -25.2% 2% -26.0%
20% -32.5% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses28 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage458d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $30 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $33 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $37 −$4 -12%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 08 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $26 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $68 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 06 $15 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $40 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Dec 13 $1 $0 -26%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 26 $5 $0 -2%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? Jun 24 $45 $0 +0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 23 $6 $0 -0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? Jun 22 $7 $0 +0%
Israel strike on Iran on June 24? Jun 22 $8 −$1 -11%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio May 31 $1 $0 -9%
Ethereum above $2,800 on May 30? May 30 $9 $0 +3%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 29 $9 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 23–30? May 26 $9 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? May 26 $9 $0 -5%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? May 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ashwin Adhin be the next president of Suriname after the election May 24 $7 $0 -2%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? May 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or May 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 20 $7 $0 +8%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 20 $6 $0 +1%
Will 'Senshi' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 20 May 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 18 $6 $0 +6%
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote? May 16 $2 +$3 +202%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? May 15 $7 $0 -1%
Will Greece finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 13? May 15 $4 $0 +4%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 14 $47 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 11 $47 $0 +0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 11 $42 $0 +0%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Delhi Capitals win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 10 $44 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $30 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $30 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $30 18h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $19 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $14 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $33 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $29 41h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $1 41h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $30 42h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $17 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $16 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $13 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $16 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $29 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $12 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $5 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $7 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $0 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $32 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $33 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $33 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $37 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 12d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 90¢ $33 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $32 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $26 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $26 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.80 · official $30.62 (match) · 180 history records