Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:37:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E2 0xe293…e3aa other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 607d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%39W / 2L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% +$7
tech 23% +$1
politics 21% $0
economics 14% $0
crypto 12% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 10 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 10 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 41 +1.0% -8.7% 95% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 0% -8.9%
10% -17.4% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×14.8 per $1 lost it wins $14.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

607d coverage
Net worth$182
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses39 / 2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)41 / 48
History coverage607d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? No 96¢ 96¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in March 2026? Jun 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,200 (HIGH) in March 2026? Jun 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,500 (HIGH) in March 2026? Jun 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will Josée Massi be the next mayor of Toulon? Jun 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Jun 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Jun 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Jun 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will Jean-Luc Moudenc be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Jun 28 $20 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Jun 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Mar 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Mar 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Mar 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Mar 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Mar 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026 Mar 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Mar 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? Mar 25 $20 $0 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Mar 25 $20 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in November? Jan 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? Jan 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in November? Jan 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? Jan 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? Jan 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? Jan 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on Nov 23 $21 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septem Nov 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe Nov 23 $60 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by September 30? Nov 23 $60 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Sep 18 $35 $0 +1%
Will Biden finish his term? Sep 18 $46 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Jan 10-17? Sep 18 $99 $0 +0%
Roaring Kitty jail in 2024? Jan 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will Kraken IPO in 2024? Jan 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will Milady flip BAYC in 2024? Jan 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will Circle IPO in 2024? Jan 16 $5 $0 +4%
Zircuit airdrop in 2024? Jan 16 $9 +$1 +9%
Base airdrop in 2024? Jan 16 $48 +$2 +3%
Farcaster airdrop in 2024? Jan 16 $47 +$3 +7%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting? Oct 29 $69 $0 +0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 29 $179 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? BUY No 96¢ $15 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,500 (HIGH) in March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 95d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 95d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,200 (HIGH) in March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 95d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $20 95d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $20 95d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap BUY No 100¢ $20 95d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $20 95d
Will Josée Massi be the next mayor of Toulon? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 95d
Will Jean-Luc Moudenc be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 BUY Yes 100¢ $20 95d
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $30 95d
Will OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 153d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 153d
Will DeepSeek have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026 BUY No 100¢ $20 153d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 153d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 153d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 153d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 153d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 153d
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $20 153d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in November? BUY No 100¢ $21 217d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? BUY No 100¢ $40 217d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? BUY No 100¢ $30 217d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? BUY No 100¢ $30 217d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.80 · official $181.80 (match) · 97 history records