Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:03:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe294…4494 other 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate21%14W / 52L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$2
other 37% −$2
economics 10% $0
world 8% $0
crypto 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +78.8% +61.8% 25% 8% -8.1%
≤30d 66 +15.1% +4.1% 21% 3% -9.4%
≤90d 66 +15.1% +4.1% 21% 3% -9.4%
all 66 +15.1% +4.1% 21% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.1% 3% -9.4%
10% -5.8% 2% -18.0%
15% -14.9% 2% -26.0%
20% -23.3% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×8.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.36 per $1 lost it wins $2.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses14 / 52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage24d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $44 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd Jun 16 $45 $0 -0%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 16 $45 $0 -0%
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 16 $45 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $87 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $88 $0 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $133 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 16 $45 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$10 +945%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $225 $0 -0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $90 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $222 $0 -0%
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $45 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $44 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $88 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $88 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +5%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $89 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $44 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $91 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $45 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 05 $45 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $44 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $45 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $45 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 04 $45 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 04 $327 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 03 $45 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 03 $45 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $91 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +20%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $46 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $46 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $47 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $94 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in South Korea? Jun 01 $47 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 31 $46 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $44 1h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 1h
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $44 1h
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd SELL No 100¢ $45 5d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd BUY No 100¢ $45 5d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $45 5d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $45 5d
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $45 5d
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $45 5d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $43 5d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $43 5d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $43 5d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $43 5d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $43 5d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $43 5d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $45 5d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $45 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 6d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 9d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 9d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 9d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 9d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 9d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 9d
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $45 9d
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $45 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 191 history records