Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:59:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E2 0xe296…5891 world 17 markets active 14h ago coverage 456d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$16 (+4%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate71%12W / 5L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% +$15
other 6% $0
tech 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
weather 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.4% -5.5% 50% 17% -4.1%
≤30d 6 +4.4% -5.5% 50% 17% -4.1%
≤90d 6 +4.4% -5.5% 50% 17% -4.1%
all 17 +2.7% -7.1% 71% 6% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 6% -5.2%
10% -16.0% 6% -14.3%
15% -24.1% 0% -22.6%
20% -31.6% 0% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.73 per $1 lost it wins $6.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

456d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses12 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage456d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $148 +$16 +11%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $51 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 -8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $92 −$2 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +5%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Jun 26 $10 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 17 $10 $0 -1%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in April? Apr 16 $12 $0 -1%
US military action against Iran before April? Mar 31 $13 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on March 24? Mar 27 $13 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $11 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 700 or more times March 14-21? Mar 16 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $8 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $34 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $4 14h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $50 14h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $51 16h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $16 22h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $35 22h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $7 25h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $43 25h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $42 33h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $3 33h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $45 35h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $43 40h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $40 42h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $0 43h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $0 43h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $0 43h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $0 43h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $1 43h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $2 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $48 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $48 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $11 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $6 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $16 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $15 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $27 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $29 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $15 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.00 · official $59.00 (match) · 55 history records