Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:25:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe297…e484 sports 686 markets active 2h ago coverage 670d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,128 (-9%) realized −$2,126 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate53%366W / 319L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$187est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$237
14 days−$281
30 days−$567
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$1,222
other 8% −$421
politics 5% −$492
crypto 1% −$35
world 1% −$10
tech 0% +$1
weather 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -16.7% -24.7% 50% 40% -19.2%
≤30d 249 -10.0% -18.5% 55% 47% -13.3%
≤90d 651 -10.5% -19.0% 54% 45% -15.1%
all 685 -10.7% -19.2% 53% 44% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 44% -17.4%
10% -27.0% 35% -25.3%
15% -34.0% 25% -32.5%
20% -40.5% 18% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$23 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

670d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,126
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses366 / 319
Est. fees paid−$187
Open positions1
Markets (closed)685 / 686
History coverage670d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 685 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BetBoom Team 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $12 −$10 -85%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 +$2 +16%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $22 −$22 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $17 +$5 +30%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$7 +73%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $29 −$29 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $19 +$10 +54%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $17 +$2 +10%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $14 +$3 +26%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $14 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $14 −$13 -97%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $14 −$13 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$1 +42%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $3 $0 +10%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $121 −$67 -56%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $115 −$50 -44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $375 −$195 -52%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $55 +$54 +98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $93 +$65 +69%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $31 +$78 +256%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $87 +$37 +42%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $13 +$17 +126%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $46 +$24 +53%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $167 +$3 +2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $59 −$10 -17%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $65 +$12 +19%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$29 +98%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $25 −$24 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $14 +$24 +178%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$1 -39%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $16 −$3 -18%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$8 -85%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $28 +$8 +27%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $13 +$2 +15%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $13 +$9 +65%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $148 −$42 -28%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $52 +$19 +38%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $56 +$4 +7%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $42 +$14 +33%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $28 +$28 +101%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A Jun 12 $14 +$3 +23%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $13 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $28 −$15 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 60¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 59¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 8¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 52¢ $12 2h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner SELL Gentle Mates 100¢ $12 3h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 86¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner SELL FOKUS 100¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner BUY FOKUS 95¢ $10 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $22 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $22 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 76¢ $17 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $17 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 58¢ $29 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $29 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 64¢ $19 3d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner SELL Walczaki 90¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner SELL Walczaki 90¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner SELL Walczaki 90¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 81¢ $17 3d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner SELL Walczaki 100¢ $17 3d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 79¢ $14 3d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 38¢ $14 3d
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY DXA Esports 10¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY DXA Esports 12¢ $12 3d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY - Map 1 Winner BUY MARKandLARRY 32¢ $14 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 2 Winner SELL Marsborne 99¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2258 history records