Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:36:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe298…6ea7 sports 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 644d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate4%4W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 98% −$6
other 1% −$4
sports 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-61.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +997.8% +893.3% 50% 50% -13.1%
≤30d 2 +997.8% +893.3% 50% 50% -13.1%
≤90d 2 +997.8% +893.3% 50% 50% -13.1%
all 113 -57.5% -61.5% 4% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.5% 2% -9.7%
10% -65.2% 2% -18.3%
15% -68.6% 2% -26.2%
20% -71.6% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -70% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

644d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses4 / 109
Open positions0
Markets (closed)113 / 113
History coverage644d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 113 Trades
no open positions (46 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 28 $0 $0 +4067%
Will Patrick Mahomes win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Dec 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will another player win NFL MVP for the 2024-2025 season? Dec 11 $0 $0 +92%
Will Joe Biden be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Dec 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will Pete Buttigieg be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Dec 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will another candidate be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Dec 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will Hillary Clinton be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Dec 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kamala Harris be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Dec 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will Gretchen Whitmer be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Dec 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will J.B. Pritzker be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Dec 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Dec 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will Andy Beshear be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Dec 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will Josh Shapiro be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Dec 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will Mark Kelly be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Dec 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will Gina Raimondo be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Dec 11 $0 $0 -100%
Linea airdrop in 2024? Nov 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 08 $3 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $3 $0 +2%
Will Manchester City win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bologna win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 04 $0 $0 -99%
Will PSV Eindhoven win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Red Bull Salzburg win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Celtic win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 04 $0 $0 -99%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 04 $0 $0 -99%
Will Monaco win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 04 $0 $0 -99%
Will Sparta Prague win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 04 $0 $0 -99%
Will Dinamo Zagreb win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 04 $0 $0 -99%
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Girona win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kirk Cousins win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 04 $0 $0 -99%
Will Jordan Love win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 04 $0 $0 -99%
Will Kyler Murray win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 04 $0 $0 -99%
Will Justin Herbert win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 04 $0 $0 -99%
Will Caleb Williams win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Matthew Stafford win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 04 $0 $0 -99%
Will Aaron Rodgers win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Dak Prescott win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 04 $0 $0 -99%
Will Brock Purdy win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 04 $0 $0 -99%
Will Jalen Hurts win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 04 $0 $0 -99%
Will Joe Burrow win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 04 $0 $0 -99%
Will C.J. Stroud win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 04 $0 $0 -99%
Will Justin Jefferson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tyreek Hill win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tua Tagovailoa win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trevor Lawrence win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 04 $0 $0 -99%
Will Christian McCaffrey win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 04 $0 $0 -99%
Will CeeDee Lamb win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 04 $0 $0 -99%
Will Anthony Richardson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 04 $0 $0 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 53m
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $8 53m
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 56m
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 56m
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 56m
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 56m
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 56m
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 56m
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 56m
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $35 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 242 history records