Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:12:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe29b…3963 other 169 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$56 (-0%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate13%22W / 146L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$27
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% −$22
other 24% +$31
sports 20% −$14
crypto 9% −$11
world 6% −$8
finance 6% −$4
economics 3% −$2
tech 2% −$5
culture 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.8% -10.2% 4% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 76 -0.6% -10.1% 11% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 161 -0.4% -9.9% 12% 1% -9.7%
all 168 -0.4% -9.9% 13% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 1% -9.7%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses22 / 146
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)168 / 169
History coverage99d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $59 $58 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $42 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $202 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $147 −$1 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $125 −$2 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $155 −$1 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 Jun 15 $94 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $112 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $59 $0 +0%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $56 −$1 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $183 −$2 -1%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $154 −$1 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $63 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $62 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 12 $205 −$3 -2%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $106 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 10 $52 −$1 -3%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $42 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 09 $64 −$2 -3%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $39 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 06 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $49 $0 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 04 $54 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 03 $60 $0 -0%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $49 −$1 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $48 −$2 -4%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) Jun 03 $46 +$1 +3%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $45 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $103 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $253 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $109 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $118 −$1 -1%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $123 −$1 -1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $541 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $152 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $108 $0 -0%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? May 29 $63 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $59 49m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $42 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $42 8h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $51 8h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $50 15h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 15h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $52 19h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 95¢ $63 20h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $63 24h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $48 24h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $48 30h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 94¢ $60 31h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 95¢ $61 35h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $60 35h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $35 39h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $26 40h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $58 40h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $58 45h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 SELL No 95¢ $46 46h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY No 95¢ $46 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $53 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $16 2d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $53 2d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $53 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $48 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 97¢ $59 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 97¢ $38 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 97¢ $21 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.30 · official $58.30 (match) · 681 history records