Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:58:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe29d…1f2b crypto 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (97 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$31 (-3%) realized −$30 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day96.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$192
other 5% +$3
economics 1% −$1
sports 1% −$10
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (97 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -22.5% -29.9% 32% 24% -28.4%
≤30d 37 -22.5% -29.9% 32% 24% -28.4%
≤90d 37 -22.5% -29.9% 32% 24% -28.4%
all 37 -22.5% -29.9% 32% 24% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover96.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.9% 24% -28.4%
10% ← realistic here -36.6% 19% -35.2%
15% -42.7% 14% -41.5%
20% -48.3% 8% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$30
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)37 / 42
History coverage2d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day96.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 78¢ 74¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$3 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $24 −$11 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$6 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $77 −$44 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$16 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$11 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$15 -56%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 +$3 +12%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $57 +$16 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $18 −$5 -26%
Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 21 $1 $0 +42%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $15 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $114 −$36 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $138 −$21 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 20 $91 −$24 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$44 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $25 −$10 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$4 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 47m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 58m
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 58m
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.07 · official $53.07 (match) · 196 history records