Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:48:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

E2 0xe29e…76e0 sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$128 (-8%) realized −$155 · open +$27

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip

Net edge+26%after slip

Net WR61%break-even

Win rate61%14W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$64per market

Trades / day1.2pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit54%portable

Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$63

7 days−$108

14 days−$108

30 days−$108

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +61%

net ROI/market (all)+26.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	+39.3%	+26.0%	61%	61%	-13.9%
≤30d	23	+39.3%	+26.0%	61%	61%	-13.9%
≤90d	23	+39.3%	+26.0%	61%	61%	-13.9%
all	23	+39.3%	+26.0%	61%	61%	-13.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+26.0%	61%	-13.9%
10%	+14.0%	52%	-22.2%
15%	+3.0%	48%	-29.7%
20%	-7.1%	39%	-36.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +39% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +85% → late -2% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$30 vs −$59 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.79 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage

Net worth$107

Realized−$155

Unrealized+$27

Win rate (resolved)61%

Wins / losses14 / 9

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)23 / 24

History coverage36d

Avg bet$64

Trades / day1.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	60¢	80¢	$80	$107	+$27 (+34%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$50	+$31	+62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$24	+$26	+105%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 19	$61	−$61	-100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$80	−$59	-74%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 18	$19	$0	-2%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	Jun 17	$29	−$28	-98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$24	+$4	+18%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$363	−$360	-99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$260	+$103	+40%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 17	$8	+$9	+105%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$201	+$43	+21%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$100	+$24	+24%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 17	$51	+$34	+67%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$17	+$11	+64%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$81	+$38	+48%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5	Jun 16	$10	−$7	-72%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$19	−$2	-8%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$20	+$50	+246%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5	Jun 16	$10	+$8	+82%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 15	$9	+$31	+344%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$2	+$7	+279%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5	Jun 15	$8	−$5	-70%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Jun 15	$8	−$4	-50%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$81	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$81	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$50	8h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$24	21h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$61	28h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	15¢	$19	28h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	SELL Yes	71¢	$19	29h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	BUY Yes	71¢	$19	29h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	17¢	$19	29h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	52¢	$61	40h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	BUY Yes	31¢	$29	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	99¢	$28	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	84¢	$24	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$363	2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$363	2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$260	2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	SELL Argentina	100¢	$17	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$244	2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	48¢	$8	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	82¢	$201	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	80¢	$100	3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	59¢	$51	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$119	3d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$28	3d
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5	SELL Over	16¢	$3	3d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5	BUY Over	60¢	$17	3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	SELL No	50¢	$18	3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	53¢	$19	3d
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5	BUY Over	54¢	$10	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$81	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.41 · official $108.75 · 48 history records