Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:06:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2ab…0dc8 sports 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$321 (-18%) realized −$218 · open −$103
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate31%17W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day26.9pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$398
sports 39% −$121
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -24.7% -31.8% 31% 26% -33.1%
≤30d 54 -24.7% -31.8% 31% 26% -33.1%
≤90d 54 -24.7% -31.8% 31% 26% -33.1%
all 54 -24.7% -31.8% 31% 26% -33.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.8% 26% -33.1%
10% ← realistic here -38.4% 24% -39.5%
15% -44.3% 24% -45.3%
20% -49.8% 22% -50.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$23 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$218
Unrealized−$103
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses17 / 37
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions5
Markets (closed)54 / 59
History coverage3d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day26.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 38¢ $23 $28 +$5 (+20%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Over 52¢ 16¢ $70 $21 −$49 (-70%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 Over 17¢ $30 $8 −$22 (-74%)
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Paraguay 14¢ $22 $7 −$16 (-70%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 49¢ $25 $4 −$21 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 26 $20 +$1 +2%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $20 +$1 +3%
Virgil van Dijk: 1+ goals Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Deniz Undav: 2+ goals Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Sweden to score first vs. Japan? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $20 +$30 +145%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $152 −$150 -99%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Neither team to score first? Jun 25 $10 −$5 -49%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 25 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +4%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $51 −$2 -5%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 +$54 +262%
South Africa to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 25 $6 +$14 +226%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 25 $15 +$15 +101%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $20 +$30 +146%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $25 +$36 +140%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 25 $20 +$42 +206%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 25 $21 −$20 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $51 −$5 -10%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $20 −$7 -35%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Neither team to score first? Jun 24 $15 −$5 -32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 24 $26 +$67 +262%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 +$16 +79%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $17 +$19 +109%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $11 +$18 +158%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $36 −$35 -98%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $80 −$80 -100%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $61 −$60 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paraguay vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 17¢ $31 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $71 1h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 14¢ $23 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $25 1h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 31¢ $21 1h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 44¢ $21 2h
Virgil van Dijk: 1+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $10 4h
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $20 4h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 12¢ $10 4h
Sweden to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 4h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 7h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $5 7h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $20 7h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $20 12h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes $5 12h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes $5 12h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 52¢ $48 13h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 13h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 29¢ $20 17h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $5 17h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $5 17h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 17h
Deniz Undav: 2+ goals BUY Yes $15 21h
Deniz Undav: 2+ goals BUY Yes $15 21h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $20 22h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $20 22h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 39¢ $20 22h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 42¢ $20 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.42 · official $67.88 (match) · 93 history records