Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:31:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E2 0xe2af…c477 weather 1210 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d only
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$344 (+0%) realized +$302 · open +$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%1158W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day62.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9,370now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,753
7 days−$2,978
14 days−$2,477
30 days−$2,348
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$1,131
sports 1% +$15
other 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 298 -5.1% -14.1% 94% 1% -13.9%
≤30d 957 -1.3% -10.7% 98% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 1182 +4.1% -5.8% 98% 1% -10.4%
all 1182 +4.1% -5.8% 98% 1% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 1% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 0% -18.9%
15% -23.0% 0% -26.8%
20% -30.6% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$196 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$9,370
Realized+$302
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1158 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions42
Markets (closed)1182 / 1210
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$191
Trades / day62.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 1182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18? No 98¢ 98¢ $377 $378 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 17? No 97¢ 98¢ $333 $337 +$4 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $284 $293 +$9 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $286 $287 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $285 $287 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C or higher on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $285 $287 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $285 $287 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $285 $286 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $285 $286 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $284 $286 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $284 $286 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $284 $284 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $282 $284 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $282 $283 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $283 $283 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $281 $283 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $281 $282 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $282 $282 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $280 $282 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $281 $282 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $282 $282 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 18? No 100¢ 99¢ $282 $281 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $281 $281 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C or higher on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $282 $281 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $281 $280 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 5? Jun 17 $238 −$238 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C or higher on May 4? Jun 17 $246 −$246 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 1? Jun 17 $246 −$246 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 8? Jun 17 $124 −$124 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 30? Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 61°F or below on May 6? Jun 17 $125 −$125 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on May 1? Jun 17 $247 −$247 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C or below on May 1? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on April 28? Jun 17 $279 −$279 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 27 Jun 17 $226 −$226 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on May 11? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on May 12? Jun 17 $247 −$247 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on May 4? Jun 17 $246 −$246 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 29? Jun 17 $244 −$244 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 17 $94 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $286 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June Jun 17 $282 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 17 $286 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 17 $154 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $285 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $106 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $143 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $143 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $286 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $285 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $286 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Jun Jun 17 $143 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $106 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $286 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $286 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $285 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $286 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 16? Jun 16 $285 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 16? Jun 16 $285 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? Jun 16 $285 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 16? Jun 16 $154 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $286 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $285 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $286 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $285 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $285 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $160 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $285 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 53°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $141 55m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $132 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $282 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $203 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $274 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $83 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $283 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $7 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $127 4h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $26 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY No 99¢ $112 4h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $22 4h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $259 5h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $283 5h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $5 5h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $20 5h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $10 5h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $7 5h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $282 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $96 7h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $6 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,369.51 · official $9,369.52 (match) · 3500 history records