Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:34:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2b0…b2d2 crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8 (+4%) realized +$16 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate48%15W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day39.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% $0
other 36% $0
sports 22% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -1.3% -10.7% 48% 39% -9.2%
≤30d 31 -1.3% -10.7% 48% 39% -9.2%
≤90d 31 -1.3% -10.7% 48% 39% -9.2%
all 31 -1.3% -10.7% 48% 39% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 39% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 29% -17.9%
15% -27.0% 19% -25.8%
20% -34.2% 19% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses15 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day39.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? No 60¢ 50¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $8 +$5 +67%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $8 +$1 +11%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2 +$7 +432%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 25 $12 +$8 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$5 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$4 +73%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2 +$10 +474%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +31%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $12 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 60¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 95¢ $14 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $11 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $8 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 56¢ $8 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 11h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $9 11h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.72 · official $53.72 (match) · 72 history records